The real reason nation states first emerged thousands of years ago

The accepted explanation for the establishment of the first 'nation' approximately 5,000 years ago has long been that 'food surpluses resulting from agriculture encouraged social stratification.' However, a paper published on November 25, 2025, suggests that nations may have emerged first, and that they may have triggered the development of agriculture and record-keeping systems.

State formation across cultures and the role of grain, intensive agriculture, taxation and writing | Nature Human Behavior

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02365-5

The real reason states first emerged thousands of years ago – new research
https://theconversation.com/the-real-reason-states-first-emerged-thousands-of-years-ago-new-research-268539

The oldest states are thought to have been established in ancient Mesopotamia, and later spread to Egypt, the Indus River basin, China, and Mesoamerica . The prevailing view is that the invention of agriculture was a strong catalyst for the development of large states from small societies. However, the spread of agriculture occurred approximately 9,000 years ago, a gap of 4,000 years from the establishment of states approximately 5,000 years ago, and there have been doubts about the idea that 'states were formed as a result of the spread of agriculture.'

The prevailing theory is that the development of agriculture through the use of fertilizer and irrigation created surpluses of produce that were exploited by the elite, leading to the stratification of social status and the birth of nation states. American anthropologist James Scott also proposed the view that societies that cultivated grains, rather than conventional agriculture, led to the birth of nation states. Grains such as wheat, rice, and corn ripen at predictable times and are easy to store, making them ideal for systems such as taxation, which were the driving force behind the formation of nation states.

To test theories about the origins of nation states, a research team led by Christopher Opie, a senior lecturer in evolutionary anthropology at the University of Bristol, and Quentin Douglas Atkinson, a professor of psychology at the University of Auckland, combined data from 868 societies around the world with a 'world language family tree' to use a mathematical model to estimate the order in which certain social characteristics emerged.

The results of this research suggest that intensive agriculture using fertilizer and irrigation may not be the cause of state formation, but rather the result of state formation. Contrary to the conventional explanation that states were created by agricultural surplus production, this development scenario suggests that the emergence of the state as an organization made it possible to manage labor and land and undertake large-scale projects, leading to the consolidation of scattered farmland and the increase in the efficiency of agricultural work.

Furthermore, the research team analyzed Scott's theory that grain agriculture is strongly linked to the development of nation states. The results reaffirmed that grain is easily supplied, easily stored, and suitable for taxation, and showed a clear tendency that 'cultures that adopt grain agriculture have a higher probability of forming nation states.' However, contrary to Scott's theory that 'states do not emerge in societies based on anything other than grain,' the team also found that there are nation states that do not depend on grain, such as in African cultures.

This research is groundbreaking in that it uses a mathematical model to analyze intercultural relationships, not just as a simple correlation, but also as a way of assuming order. However, it is important to note that there are limitations to estimating causal relationships, and uncertainty is inherent.

According to the researchers, the findings highlight the widespread connections between social systems and information. In our modern era, advances in digital technology and AI are bringing major changes and disruptions to the way information is generated, stored, and disseminated, while globalization and cryptocurrencies are disrupting tax systems. Climate change also poses a major threat to agricultural production. 'The challenges and choices facing nations today are recurring themes that have been present since the birth of the earliest nations thousands of years ago,' Opie said.