Explosive epidemics are caused by 'group interactions' rather than one-to-one relationships
It's common for 'fads' to spread and become social trends, such as when an idol suddenly becomes popular at school or the same game becomes popular among friends. Research has shown that the spread of fads spreads explosively through interactions between multiple groups or pairs, rather than through one-to-one connections.
Disentangling the Role of Heterogeneity and Hyperedge Overlap in Explosive Contagion on Higher-Order Networks | Phys. Rev. Lett.
How Group Interactions Create Explosive Contagion: New Mathematical Model Reveals Hidden Dynamics of Spreading Processes | News
Mapping out the hidden mechanics behind why some fads spread like wildfire
https://phys.org/news/2025-11-hidden-mechanics-fads-wildfire.html
Istvan Kiss and his colleagues at Northeastern University have used a mathematical approach to model how new ideas and trends spread when two, three, or even multiple people belong to different groups.
Behaviors or disease epidemics are usually transmitted in one-on-one relationships, like when you meet up alone with a friend and start watching the anime they introduced you to.
When two people who share a common topic join a group and start interacting, the trend spreads explosively within that group. The more groups these two people join, the greater the chance of the trend spreading.
Trends tend to grow slowly at first, because even if two people share a common hobby and a third person is introduced to it, the third person won't suddenly become interested.
However, as these two people interact with various people, the 'seeds' of the trend are planted, and when they reach a certain critical point, they spread throughout the entire population like a compressed spring being released.
While previous research had shown that similar epidemics occur, it had been difficult to derive a mathematical formula to support this phenomenon. Kiss and his colleagues have now succeeded in mathematically analyzing this phenomenon.
'This research will help us understand the process of epidemic spread, predict the speed of spread, and identify the stages at which diseases and social ideas explode,' Kiss said.
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