Oct 28, 2025 21:00:00

Researchers argue that rapid political polarization may be due to 'more friends'

In recent years, the conflict between conservatives and liberals has intensified around the world, and the division and chaos caused by increasing political polarization has become a problem. Meanwhile, a research team from

the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) , a research organization based in Austria, has published research results that suggest that the rapid increase in political polarization is due to 'an increase in the number of friends.'

Researchers Find Possible Cause For Increasing Polarization
https://csh.ac.at/news/researchers-find-possible-cause-for-increasing-polarization/

Stephen Thurner, a complex systems researcher at CSH, pointed out, 'A big question we, and many other countries, are currently grappling with is why polarization has increased so dramatically in recent years.' So Thurner and his team investigated the impact of 'changes in people's close friendships' on political polarization.

'Sociological research has shown for decades that people maintain, on average, about two 'close friends,' friends who are likely to influence their opinions on important issues,' Thurner said.

To measure the rise in political polarization, the research team looked at more than 27,000 surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center , which regularly tracks the political attitudes of Americans. The advantage of using these data is that the substantive content of the questions has remained largely unchanged, allowing for reliable comparisons over time.

The analysis found that Americans' political attitudes became significantly more polarized between 1999 and 2017. For example, in 1999, only 14% of respondents consistently expressed liberal views, but by 2017, this had increased to 31%. Similarly, in 1999, only 6% of respondents consistently expressed conservative views, but by 2017, this had increased to 16%.

'Rather than holding a mixture of liberal and conservative views, many people are increasingly leaning more clearly towards one political camp or the other,' said

Markus Hofer , a doctoral researcher at CSH and a member of the research team.

The researchers then combined 30 different surveys, each involving more than 57,000 respondents from the US and Europe, to look at how people's friendships have changed. While there were some differences between the individual surveys, the average number of close friends rose from 2.2 in 2000 to 4.1 by 2024.

Furthermore, the researchers found that political polarization and the surge in close friends occurred between 2008 and 2010, when social media and smartphones became widespread. The researchers argue that these technological innovations fundamentally changed how people connect with each other, potentially indirectly fueling political polarization.

'The crucial contribution of this research is that we reconcile both phenomena using a mathematical social model, which allows us to show that increasing connectivity beyond a critical connection density leads to a sudden polarization, similar to a phase transition in physics, such as when water turns to ice,' Hofer said.

Jan Korbel , a postdoctoral researcher at CSH and a member of the research team, explains how an increase in the number of close friends leads to political polarization: 'When people are more closely connected, they encounter differing opinions more frequently. This inevitably leads to increased conflict and ultimately to further polarization in society.'

'If I have two friends, I'll do anything to maintain those two relationships. I can be very tolerant of those two,' says Cerner. 'But if I have five friends, if something goes wrong with one of them, I still have a 'backup,' so it's easy to end that friendship. I no longer have to be so tolerant.'

Political polarization has existed for some time, but in recent years, groups have become more closely connected, resulting in little interaction between groups with differing views. This exacerbates the problem. 'There are few bridges between these ' filter bubbles,' and even when they exist, they are often negative or hostile,' Corbell said. 'This represents a new social phenomenon called fragmentation .'

'Democracy presupposes that all parts of society are involved in decision-making, and for that to happen, everyone needs to be able to communicate with each other. However, if groups stop talking to each other, this democratic process breaks down,' said Thurner. He went on to emphasize that in order to prevent social division, it is important to learn early on how to deal with different opinions and to actively cultivate tolerance.