What does Google really mean when it says 'the open web is rapidly declining'?

In a brief submitted to the court in a lawsuit brought by the US Department of Justice against Google for violating antitrust laws, Google stated that ' the open web is already in rapid decline.'

Google Memorandum Ad Tech | DocumentCloud
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/26086105-google-memorandum-ad-tech/

The lawsuit was filed in October 2020 by the Department of Justice, alleging that Google 'illegibly maintains a monopoly in the search and search advertising markets through anticompetitive and exclusionary practices.' In August 2024, Judge Amit P. Mehta of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that 'Google's conduct constitutes a monopoly in general search services and general search text advertising.'

Federal judge rules that Google's payments to maintain its dominance in smartphone search violate antitrust laws - GIGAZINE

The Justice Department demanded that Google sell Chrome, separate Google Search and Google Play from Android, and license search data. However, Judge Mehta ruled in September 2025 that Google was not required to sell Chrome, though he allowed the disclosure of search data and prohibited exclusive contracts for its own services.

The ruling states that Google does not need to sell Chrome, but that exclusive contracts for its own services are prohibited and that data sharing with competitors will be mandatory in anticipation of the future of AI search.

In its brief on proposed remedies filed with the court, Google argued:

'Plaintiffs (DOJ) continue to move forward with essentially the same business separation plan they proposed in their complaint filed in January 2023, while the world continues to change. Plaintiffs are proposing remedies as if there had never been a trial, a court liability ruling, or discovery regarding remedies, and as if the incredibly dynamic ad tech ecosystem stood still while this legal process continued.'

'But the changes are many. AI is reshaping advertising technology at every level. Non-open Web display advertising formats, like smart TV and retail media , are exploding in popularity. And Google's competitors are directing their investments to these new growth areas. The fact is today that the open Web is already in rapid decline, and Plaintiffs' proposed separation would only accelerate that decline and harm publishers who rely on open Web display advertising revenue. As the law makes clear, the last thing a court should do is intervene to further reshape an industry already being reshaped by market forces.'

The Verge, an IT news media outlet, points out that Google's statement is 'significantly inconsistent' with what Google has previously communicated to the public.

Google admits the open web is in 'rapid decline' | The Verge
https://www.theverge.com/news/773928/google-open-web-rapid-decline

The Verge points out that Google has been claiming for the past few months that 'the web is thriving' and denying that AI is causing traffic declines. It also points out that Google CEO Sundar Pichai and other executives continued to say 'the web is thriving' even after the introduction of AI search tools, and analyzes that Google has a clear incentive to make itself appear weaker and less monopolistic in court.

Furthermore, The Verge noted that while Google's argument may be a legal strategy, its content 'reflects the reality that many publishers are experiencing,' pointing out that many digital media and individual publishers are reporting a decline in traffic due to changes in Google's search algorithm and the rise of AI chatbots.

In fact, analysis by a research company has shown that the number of people accessing news sites from Google searches has dropped dramatically, and some believe that the introduction of 'AI summaries' will further reduce this number .

Traffic from Google Search to news sites plummets, and the introduction of 'AI summaries' could bring further crisis - GIGAZINE

A Google spokesperson told The Verge, 'This statement is a misleading and arbitrary excerpt from Google's legal documents. As you can see from the previous paragraph, we are referring to 'open web display ads,' not the open web as a whole.' The spokesperson denied The Verge's position.