Aug 23, 2025 22:32:00

A statistical analysis of the movie review site Rotten Tomatoes reveals whether it's trustworthy.

On the American film review website

Rotten Tomatoes , films that are highly rated by the majority of reviewers are classified as 'fresh,' while films that are not so highly rated are classified as 'rotten.' Data journalist Daniel Paris noticed that more films are being classified as 'fresh' than before, so he conducted a statistical analysis to find out, 'Are Rotten Tomatoes' ratings trustworthy? Are they being unfairly inflated?'

Is Rotten Tomatoes Still Reliable? A Statistical Analysis
https://www.statsignificant.com/p/is-rotten-tomatoes-still-reliable

Rotten Tomatoes collects reviews from various writers approved by film critics organizations and writers associations, and rates films as 'fresh' if the average positive rating is over 60%, and 'rotten' if it is below 60%. Furthermore, even within the 'Fresh' category, films that meet the following criteria are given the seal of approval: '80 or more reviews,' '70% or more positive ratings,' and 'five or more reviews from prominent film critics (Top Critics).'

Paris pointed out that 'Certified Fresh' ratings are on the rise on Rotten Tomatoes, and offered two possible reasons for this. One is that 'there haven't been any bad movies rated rotten in recent years.' The other is that 'the seemingly objective movie rating platform is unfairly inflating ratings for the benefit of corporations.' In fact, it has been reported that some PR companies may have been paying users to post positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes.

Reports that PR companies paid money to write positive reviews on movie review site 'Rotten Tomatoes' - GIGAZINE

So Paris looked at the relationship between the scores given to films by Rotten Tomatoes critics and the scores given by ordinary viewers. The graph below shows the correlation between critic ratings and ordinary viewers' ratings by year. The graph shows that the correlation has declined significantly since 2016.

According to Paris, 2016 was the year Rotten Tomatoes was acquired by movie ticket sales platform Fandango, and the average Rotten Tomatoes rating may have increased since then. Fandango is partly owned by movie companies, so it's possible that they manipulate the ratings to prevent movies from falling.

On the other hand, the graph below shows the number of reviews per movie, and the number of reviews has increased since the Fandango acquisition. This could simply be because the site has become larger, increasing the number of ratings available, making the average rating more reliable.

According to a 2018 poll by The Morning Consult , an international data intelligence company, about one-third of Americans check the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer before watching a movie. While there's debate over whether ratings are manipulated or whether 'Certified Fresh' ratings are as reliable as they once were, Paris concludes, 'If ratings on influential websites lead to movie viewing, then adjusting ratings may not be such a bad thing.' However, Paris pointed out that this is a short-term ploy, and if a movie that was once considered 'rotten' is now rated 'Certified Fresh,' it could have a negative impact on the film industry in the long term.